Analyzing Taylor Made's Purchase of Adams Golf

This has been a big news week in my world – the PGA Tour announced significant structural changes, my company TGA officially announced the launch of TGA Premier Youth Tennis with the USTA as a Founding Partner, Los Angeles announced itself as a meaningful startup community at Start Engine’s Demo Day (where I’m a Mentor), and Taylor Made announced its acquisition of Adams Golf.

I’m going to talk about all of these items in future blogs, especially TGA’s strategic decision to enter the tennis industry as the lessons learned are already reminding me of case studies I used to debate in business school. 

Today, however, I want to look at Taylor Made’s Acquisition of Adams Golf, which was announced on Monday.  I’m going to look at it from three perspectives – financial, strategic, and implications for entrepreneurs.

Financial:

Taylor Made Adidas Golf Group acquired Adams Golf for ~$70 million, or $10.80 per share. This represents a premium of ~71% over the share price from before Adams Golf announced it was examining major new strategic directions in early January and a 9.5% premium over their closing price last Friday of $9.86.  Upon news of the acquisition, shares rose 8.8% to $10.73 on Monday (where it currently remains), indicating that the market likes the acquisition, at least for Adams Golf.  Shareholders must like it too considering the stock at this time last year was $5.22.

Adams Golf had $11.85 million of operating income in 2011 on $96.50 million of revenue, so Taylor Made gets an equipment company that is profitable with ~12% operating margin. This seems pretty good considering Callaway, the other publicly-traded golf equipment company, had an operating margin of almost -10% last year with $81.09 million of losses on $886.53 million of revenue.  Therefore, Taylor Made paid 0.72x revenue and 6x earnings.  I don’t have any comps to compare these multiples to, but at first glance they look pretty good to me considering the lack of profitable equipment manufacturers in the industry.

Strategic:

Adams Golf’s focus on mid-high handicappers nicely complements TM’s portfolio of products that focus on low-mid handicappers.  Therefore, the acquisition buys top-to-bottom market share for Taylor Made.  Additionally, when analyzed through Porter’s Five Forces (which is a great model for looking at strategic decisions), the deal looks like a good one:

Threat of New Competition – the acquisition makes the largest golf equipment manufacturer even larger.  I agree with many leaders in the golf industry who feel that we’re about to see consolidation amongst equipment manufacturers and this move is a step in that direction.  As a result, threat of new entrants into the market decreases as barriers such as capital requirements, brand equity and economies of scale tilt more in favor of Taylor Made. Analysis – thumbs-up for TM.

Threat of Substitute Products or Services – since there are no alternatives to golf clubs – meaning, you need to have them and them alone to play on a golf course – this “force” doesn’t apply much to the acquisition.  In terms of customers spending their time/money on activities that substitute for golf, this deal also has no impact. Analysis – neutral for TM.

Bargaining Power of Customers – consolidation almost always leads to less bargaining power for customers due to fewer options that create less competition.  Analysis – thumbs-up for TM.

Bargaining Power of Suppliers – this move gives greater economies of scale to TM and therefore gives them greater influence over suppliers. Analysis – thumbs-up for TM.

Intensity of Competitive Rivalry – I believe the acquisition will increase rivalry in the short-term as competitors scramble to compete with a growing market leader through increased advertising spending and so forth.  However, in the long-term, I don’t believe any equipment company can create a sustainable competitive advantage through innovation due to USGA regulations.  Therefore, manufacturers will (and are) evolving from R&D houses to marketing firms.  Once this happens, golf clubs will essentially become a commodity from a technological standpoint and industry leaders will need to succeed through brand equity.  New  private-label entrants will then be able to enter the market with equal quality and significantly reduced price-points through reduced overhead, thus increasing competitive rivalry for everyone.  For both the short-term and long-term, that spells trouble for Taylor Made.  But, I believe this will happen regardless of the Adams acquisition. Analysis - neutral for TM.

Implications:

For entrepreneurs, I think consolidation is bad news in the short term and good news in the long term.  As technology becomes a commodity, and big players fail to innovate (as is often the case with consolidation), opportunities will arise for new entrants to capitalize on the huge market of people who want top-of-the-line technology but don’t want to pay $500 for a driver.  If and when that happens, hopefully entrepreneurs will be there with a solution that makes golf more affordable and therefore gets more players into the game.

A 19th Hole - at the Beginning of the Round?

I made a quick jaunt to Northern California last week with a hectic work schedule but was fortuitously able to incorporate a little golf into the itinerary.  The golf was spectacular (see pictures below), my game was not.  Complicating matters was that we were pushing it by trying to fit two rounds into very limited time.  As such, we essentially pulled into the parking lots of each golf course, checked in, hit a few putts and teed off.  You can imagine what those first hole scores looked like.

My TGA colleague Nate Wright had a couple of intriguing thoughts about this process that I’ve been chewing on since and wanted to pass along.

As I was finishing up my double bogey putt on the first green of our second course, Pasatiempo, he said – “Wouldn’t it be great if golf courses were built with 19 holes and the first was a warm-up?”  I laughed it off but he persisted – “You could have a Marshal walk with each group and determine, based on the scores and what he or she saw, what tees the players needed to use for the rest of the round.”

I initially laughed it off again but the idea grew on me as I thought more about it.

There are obvious complications – incorporating a 19^th hole into existing layouts, adding to the length of a round, disrupting the concept of an 18 hole course, adding another employee to payroll, potential subjectivity of the Marshal determining tees (and the corresponding displeasure/arguments), etc.

But there are also benefits – minimizing the need for practice time before the round, increasing enjoyment of the round by having a warm-up hole to minimize high first-hole scores, faster pace-of-play on the other 18 holes due to players playing from the appropriate tees, etc.

The first “practice” hole would need to be very easy, such as a wide open 350 yard par 4 with a flat green.  Maybe there would be rules regulating the maximum number of shots to get on the green at four and the number of putts at three.  Maybe players with handicaps below a certain number could bypass it altogether and play from any tees they wanted.  Maybe the practice hole could be added to the side of the driving range, where space is often more abundant and easier to carve out, as opposed to including it in the course layout.

With the USGA considering new rules and some golf courses starting to develop innovative ways to make the game more attractive, all options seem (thankfully) to be on the table.  I think this idea stands up with many of the others and merits a place in those conversations so I wanted to throw it out there. 

What do you think?

And, hat tip to Nate Wright for the ideas.

18th Hole at Pasatiempo - Me on the left, Nate Wright on the right

11th Hole at Monterey Peninsula Country Club's Shore Course

Let's #GrowGolf Through Honest & Open Dialogue

I am a firm believer that the solution to the golf industry’s troubles is to grow the game amongst new players as opposed to trying to squeeze more money, time and participation out of existing players.  This may seem like an obvious statement but not everyone in the industry agrees with me, starting with some major equipment manufacturers who have told me as much.

In order to grow the game amongst new players, we need to do two things:

1.    Be honest in our assessment of where we stand and why.  We don’t always see this, as evidenced by this recent Tweet by SNAG on February 13:

snaggolf‏@snaggolf – 10 million kids learning #golf using SNAG! http://tinyurl.com/7d7fn8j

If you click on SNAG’s link, you’ll see that it’s a Press Release not for SNAG, but The First Tee (and SNAG is not mentioned once) announcing The First Tee's goal of reaching 10 million children.  It caught my attention because I know there are only 2.5 million kids total playing golf in the U.S.  Nevertheless, I saw industry members Retweeting this post believing it to be accurate.  I know and respect SNAG’s executive team and like what they’re doing for the game, so I hope this misleading Tweet was a mistake.  Regardless, it's a good example of what many golf companies and organizations are doing – claiming lofty achievements that aren’t really there.  And it needs to stop.

2.    Have active, open and engaging conversations about ways to grow the game.  To that end, two platforms have recently emerged that are facilitating good discussions: 

A.   The first is the Twitter hashtag #growgolf.  As to be expected, some people add it to Tweets that aren’t actually about growing golf but you can find some real idea gems if you read through the timeline.  More importantly, it’s a positive step towards initiating a valuable dialogue and I’m happy to see participation from industry leaders on down.

B.   The second is a LinkedIn group for Junior Golf that has had some compelling discussions.  If you’re in the world of junior golf, I encourage you to join the group and jump in on the conversations.  I know it’s been an educational resource for me.

My challenge to the industry is to stop focusing energy and money on PR campaigns about growing the game that serve as smoke screens for the fact that, in the last five years, youth participation has dropped 34% from 3.8 million to 2.5 million and overall participation has dropped 13% from 30 million to 26.1 million.  (The full participation report is below.)  Those are staggering statistics.  And, they tell me that none of us in the industry are doing a good enough job – myself included.

Once we take ownership of our reality, let’s have an open dialogue about solutions where innovation, entrepreneurship and efforts that have tangible proof of growing the game are embraced.  I’m happy to see this happening on Twitter and LinkedIn and I hope other platforms arise as well – starting with this blog.

A Significant, Sustainable & Non-Radical Solution to Golf's Participation Problem

The Wall Street Journal published an article last weekend called “The Battle for the Soul of the Game” and it captured the essence of this interesting time in the golf industry. 

The article discusses how the golf industry is thinking about combating the game’s declining participation, causes of which include 5-6 hour rounds, expensive green fees, increasingly difficult courses and little overall accessibility.  Industry leaders face difficult decisions because many of the popular solutions to these problems require a fundamental shift in the traditions, values and “soul” of the game.

Some of the more radical ideas include: two sets of rules – one for professionals and one for amateurs, golf balls that fly farther or shorter to accommodate courses of different lengths, doubling the size of the hole, building courses with less holes and so forth.

I understand why these ideas exist but I don’t support them because they disrupt a fundamental aspect of the game that I believe should be forever sacred – “the number.”  Every round of golf produces a score.  Golfers can compare it to previous performances.  It’ll make them feel good about themselves, or strive to be better, or both.  They can compare it to others.  It can be discussed at ease with both golfers and non-golfers alike.  They can even compare it to professionals.  Thanks to one set of rules, 18 holes, normal-sized golf courses, standardized equipment and a 3” hole, every score produces a number that means something.  In many ways it means everything.  And it should never be taken away.

There are traditional solutions as well – moving the tees forward, eliminating carts on courses where they have to stay on the path, increasing marketing efforts, etc. – but these all feel to me like using a band aid where stitches are needed.

There is one solution, however, that was discussed in the Comments section of the article that I think is game-changing because it would solve these problems in a significant and meaningful way while also preserving the traditions of the game.

The concept is to create a system where people need to be able to achieve a certain handicap on a short course and pass a rules/etiquette assessment before receiving a card that would allow them to play on an 18 hole regulation facility.  This policy would apply to juniors, men, women, everyone.  It makes a lot of sense and would do several things:

1.    Create inherent demand for building short courses and a sustainable business model to support them.

2.    Provide a nurturing, non-intimidating environment for beginners to try the game and develop some skills before going to longer, harder, more expensive and time-consuming courses.

3.    Offer all golfers more opportunities to enjoy the game in a relaxed setting for two hours or less.

4.    Speed up play at 18 hole facilities.

Failing golf courses could convert into a short course as opposed to closing, thus saving jobs and making the transition to this model smooth for everyone.  In the interim of building the short course, or in areas where it would be impossible to sustain one, regulation facilities could utilize the family tees or create a modified routing format (such as Tierra Rejada's innovative "Players Course") on certain days/times for beginners.  USGA members with a handicap below a certain number would be grandfathered in while all others would need to pass through the program.

I’m sure there are many more considerations as I dive deeper into the concept, including potential legal and political complications, but this to me makes a lot of sense on many levels… much more so than some of the alternatives.  It maintains the integrity of “the number,” preserves the game’s traditions, makes it more accessible to beginners, presents more opportunities for seasoned players to enjoy it and has a sustainable business model to support it. 

And, this model would present ample opportunity for entrepreneurs to capitalize on the shifting landscape.

What do you think?

Last Week Was A Great Week For Golf

The Waste Management Phoenix Open last week was, like always, an awesome tournament.  Making it so unique was the fact that even if Spencer Levin won easily with zero drama (as most predicted entering the final round), or if Kyle Stanley didn’t pull off an amazing turnaround following his Farmer’s Open collapse the week before (something that golfers, entrepreneurs and many others can learn from), it still would’ve been an awesome tournament.  Why?  Because the people who put it on – the “Thunderbirds” – focus on making it an all-around fun experience as opposed to just a golf spectator event.

There’s the famed 16^th hole with its stadium seating, a seemingly simply concept considering all other major sports have 360 degree seating formats, but this is unique to this one hole.  This one tournament.

There’s the Bird’s Nest across the street where the likes of Will.I.Am and the Goo Goo Dolls performed in the evenings, with players like Rickie Fowler making stage appearances.  Again, unique to this one tournament.

Simply put, the Waste Management Phoenix Open is one big party.  Which, not surprising for the golf industry, means that some folks don’t like it.  Last week I shook my head as I read tweets and comment threads on blogs/articles questioning whether this was good for golf.  “This” being the raucous crowds at 16, the drinking, the atmosphere.

I think there's no question that this tournament is good - make that GREAT - for golf.  Here’s why:

Attendance for the Saturday round alone was 173,210.  That’s a record for single day attendance of any golf tournament ever.  In history.  Consider this – event organizers for the Farmer’s Insurance Open the previous week at Torrey Pines (in the heart of San Diego) estimated attendance at 150,000 … for the entire week.

Overall attendance at the Waste Management Phoenix Open was over 500,000.  Compare this to last year’s U.S. Open at Congressional, where total weekly attendance was “nearly 230,000 people.”  And the field in Phoenix featured only two players in the Top 10 of the World Rankings, with the highest ranked golfer being Webb Simpson at #6.

My take is this – anything that brings people into golf and gets them excited about the game is good for the game.  It should be encouraged, embraced, studied and replicated.  The 16^th sat 22,000 people and anyone who watched the tournament could see that the fans, players, caddies and everyone else loved it.  Who will forget Bubba Watson and Ben Crane reuniting as the Golf Boys?  Pure entertainment.

For the detractors, I encourage them to read about the Haimish Line because I think their view comes from the wrong side of it. 

Last week, 500,000 people hung out on a golf course in Scottsdale – more than ever before in the history of the game – because it was a fun, social environment.  That's a valuable lesson for anyone in the golf industry looking to grow the game.

Clarity Within the Noise

I was recently invited to be a mentor for an incubator called StartEngine, which is a 90 day program for very early stage technology companies to get their startups off the ground.  I’ve met with several companies since and I’m noticing a recurring theme – the entrepreneurs are getting conflicting information from the various mentors/investors/advisors around them, and they’re having trouble making sense of it. 

Here was an exchange I had last week:

Entrepreneur with a social media / mobile app company – “Last week we had an investor come in and say that we had to have a business/revenue model from the outset.  Then one of our mentors told us that we don’t need to worry about a business model right now and instead just need to build product.  Then a separate person told us that it’s all about users.  Which is it?”

Me – “It depends.  What do you ultimately want the company to be?”

Entrepreneur – “(insert standard 30 second pitch)”

Me – “Doesn’t answer the question.  Let’s try it this way – why did you get into this business?"

Entrepreneur – “To make life easier for my market of users.”

Me – “Ok, then answer me this – one year from now, would you rather have 100,000 free users and be dependent on outside funding or have 10,000 paying users who each pay a couple of bucks and have you on the road to sustainability?”

Entrepreneur – “Not sure, which one would investors look more favorably upon?

Me – “That depends on what you ultimately want your company to be.”

This discussion is typical of several conversations I’ve had with other entrepreneurs about the unique challenges and decisions they face with their business.  It’s not too different from the process I go through daily with folks interested in starting a TGA franchise.  With all of the noise out there offering business advice and guidance – blogs, books, Twitter, advisors, mentors, investors, etc. – it is understandable why many young entrepreneurs find themselves with spinning heads.

When it comes to big decisions, my advice is simple – always remember why you got into the business (vision) and know what your long-term goals are (strategic plan).  Then make decisions that align accordingly.  It works because the vision is set in stone at a period in time, and thus will keep you grounded, while your long-term goals are malleable and thus will allow you to adjust and pivot. 

I was discussing these thoughts yesterday with our Curriculum Consultant at TGA who has a doctorate and 25 years in education, and she told me about a book called “The Element” by Sir Ken Robinson.  She described it as a book that identifies four conditions for achievement – aptitude, passion, attitude and opportunity.  The two features of being in one’s “element” are aptitude and passion, and the conditions for it are attitude and opportunity.  Basically, you’ll be successful if you do something you’re good at and passion about, so long as you have a positive attitude and the right opportunity.  I ordered the book last night and I look forward to diving deeper into the concept as I think it aligns with the advice I’ve been giving to the entrepreneurs.

I make a concerted effort to constantly read, learn and surround myself with people smarter and more experienced than me.  I certainly encourage all entrepreneurs to do the same.  But when it comes to big decisions with your business, the focus shouldn’t be on what others are telling you but rather on what aligns with your reasons for getting into the business and what you ultimately want it to be.

Spend 2012 on the Right Side of the Haimish Line

After a break for the holidays and the birth of my beautiful daughter Eva Grace Tanner, I’m returning to my weekly blog with a renewed vigor for 2012.

I’ve been reading a lot lately and one of the more interesting pieces was a Mark Suster blog titled “Spend 2012 on the Right Side of the Haimish Line" in which he references this NYT article by David Brooks.

Brooks defines haimish as “a Yiddish word that suggests warmth, domesticity and unpretentious conviviality.”  The concept is that you risk crossing the haimish line into a less happy existence if you blockade yourself from normal folks.  Examples of doing this would include staying at super-private hotels, working solely from behind a desk, etc.  As I read these articles, I took the concept a step further by thinking about the professional consequences that would arise from boxing in one's experiences.  i.e. If you play golf exclusively at private and luxurious clubs, yes, you'll miss out on the congeniality of playing with weekend warriors who are making friends, drinking beers and playing for the love of the game.  However, if this same person is then responsible for addressing the challenges faced by these weekend warriors, they probably wouldn't do a very good job.  They'd be too far removed.  The challenges themselves would fall outside the false sense of reality that their experiences had created.  And thus, professionally, they'd be operating from the wrong side of the haimish line.  

As I went through this intellectual exercise, I thought a lot about the golf industry.  And I’ve thought a lot about this concept of the haimish line since as several interesting headlines and observations appeared in the first few weeks of 2012.

First, at the PGA Tour’s season opening tournament in Kapalua, Commissioner Tim Finchem announced the Tour’s commitment to raise $100 million for The First Tee this year.  Since 1997, The First Tee has been the sole junior golf organization supported by the golf industry and it operates on a $13 million annual budget.  And yet, despite The First Tee’s claim that they’ve had 4.7 million participants, there are less kids playing golf in the U.S. today than there were the day it was founded.  (2.8 million in 1995 vs. 2.5 million in 2010 - National Golf Foundation data.)  Instead of opening their doors and offering support/resources to other youth programs, industry leaders are doubling down on their single all-in bet.  That, to me, is a decision made from the wrong side of the haimish line.

Then, earlier this week, Finchem proposed a change to the Q School format. One of the great things about professional golf is that anyone can pursue their dream of making it on Tour. You don’t need to get drafted, you don’t need an agent, you don't need to be a certain age … you just need to pass through Q School, which is open to any good player. The new format would be a 3-tournament series that is only available to select Nationwide and PGA Tour players, thus eliminating the opportunity for college golfers, club pros and anyone else who’s been working meticulously on their game to bypass the mini Tours and go straight to the big leagues. The new format benefits existing tour players, adds three new tournaments and their corresponding revenue, and undoubtedly builds more prestige in the Nationwide Tour (which, perhaps coincidentally, is in need of a new title sponsor after this year). But nevertheless, it's a closed format. Derived from closed-minded thinking that, to me, comes from the wrong side of the haimish line.

On the flipside, Golf 2.0 has done a great job of identifying golf’s many challenges and it has the industry’s undivided attention.  Its presence is everywhere at the PGA Merchandise Show in Orlando this week.  The much harder and more important part is to now identify viable solutions and execute on them.  Nevertheless, I applaud the PGA for hiring Boston Consulting Group to provide them with a sobering analysis.  I also applaud them for recruiting the perfect person to lead Golf 2.0 in Darrell Crall.  These are all things happening from the right side of the haimish line.

Additionally, the PGA of America clearly has a new social media strategy on Twitter that is much more active and open-minded.  Historically they would only tweet well-manicured PR messages but now they’re engaged in an active dialogue with industry members, including retweeting criticisms and all.  I’m also a big fan of the hashtag they’ve been promoting - #growgolf.  These are smart, engaged decisions made from the right side of the haimish line.

All of these topics require further discussion and there are other smaller examples as well, but the point I want to get across is this concept of this haimish line.  The golf industry has been operating from the wrong side of it for too long.  And it’s understandable – industry leaders don’t pay for golf, probably haven’t experienced a six hour round in their professional careers and aren’t working shoulder-to-shoulder with the PGA Pro who’s folding shirts in the shop and struggling to get by.  It’s good to see that they’re taking steps in the right direction to understand and address the challenges being faced by golfers, industry members and the game as a whole.

With that, I have a challenge for everyone, myself included - let's make sure we spend 2012 on the right side of the haimish line.